More NIZ thoughts – Orderly but smart, still a gamble.

Corresponded with some folks about recent blog post about Chuck Marohns presentation and how it relates to the Allentown NIZ. It was meant to outline a couple ways to look at the ‘orderly but dumb’ vs. ‘chaotic but smart’ question.

In one of the conversations Justin Schaefer from Strongtowns came up with a great way to frame what I was trying to convey as one possible viewpoint.

“Chaotic but smart as the default, but sometimes you get to a point where you’ve inflicted so much damage that you need a more drastic approach – where you feel a roll of the dice is worth it. Perhaps it is like if a person had not taken care of themselves for a long time and got to the point where cardio or diet was no longer going to be enough – they need open heart surgery.”

Open Heart Surgery

Open Heart Surgery?

 

 

 

2016 proposed budget in pie charts.

Our staff does an excellent job preparing our draft budgets. But I’m a visual person. So I created a couple pie charts to help demonstrate where township dollars are spent. I think this helpful and I hope residents find them useful.

*General Fund Snapshot: 
3 biggest expenditures:

  • Refuse & Recycling
  • Roads & Traffic (The township has 130 miles of roads)
  • Benefits and Insurance (Includes property insurance and employee benefits)

*1. Sewer items are in a completely separate fund
 2. Road items paid for with liquid fuels are in separate budgets.

Screen Shot 2015-12-07 at 7.51.35 PM

*Engineering does not includes services that are paid for by developers associated with land development submittals. 

 


Capital Fund Snapshot
RECYLING TOTES: I am interested to hear what residents think about the 150,000 investment in new (LARGER) recycling totes. As this is a truly discretionary item. This is something I’ve heard some residents asking for. Would like some more feedback. NOTE: The 150,000 dollar line item would also be matched with grant funding.

Even without the Quarry Project as I’ve been saying all along… the township is still making very significant investment in our Park system.

Land preservation/acquisition is a new item this year. If you read this blog with any frequency you know my thoughts and what I believe to be an urgency here. This is what I clearly ran on and what I think I was elected with a mandate to work towards. We now have a 2 year window where politically we have the wherewithal to explore all our options. We have about a 5 year window to get some land preserved. These line items ensures we have flexibility to act when opportunities present themselves. There s no guarantee any or all this line item is spent. But earmarking it keeps options open.

It’s now or never for this township. Some of the money budgeted this year could get matched with potentially and up to *4-1 return through the Lehigh County Municipal Match Farmland Preservation Program.

*estimate
Screen Shot 2015-12-07 at 7.26.10 PM

 

 

 

Tax Revenue Snapshot:
How much revenue does each tax generate for the Twp. 
Real estate transfer, earned income tax and local service taxes pay for general fund items. The property tax covers 31% of capital expenses. This is proposed 2016. Here was a breakdown of your 2015 Lower Mac property tax billScreen Shot 2015-12-07 at 7.30.44 PM
*Not included on any chart are items in the separate sewer and liquid fuel funds. You can view them here.
Total Sewer Fund expenditures are 3.9 Million.
Total Liquid Fuel Fund Expenditure is 1,507,000
No, liquid fuels does not cover all of road maintenance.

VIEW THE ENTIRE BUDGET LINE BY LINE HERE

Questions? Email me at Ronbeitler@gmail.com

Orderly but smart? Perhaps. But still a gamble.

Incrementalism is a sure bet. It can’t fail. That’s the beauty of the Strongtowns message. Make lots of small bets with low risk. Friday Chuck Marohn was at the Renew LV Summit for Smart Growth with the message.

Chaotic but smart / orderly but dumb
There was a healthy exchange between the Mayor of Allentown and Chuck. Marohn advocates for incrementalism and is generally against tax subsidies for catalytic “game changer” projects. (Big gambles as opposed to small bets) “Chaotic but smart” is always better than “orderly but dumb”. In the suburban context the presentation is basically a blow by blow critique of “ponzi scheme” sprawl. That is use of subsidies direct or indirect to expand infrastructure to build financially low yielding but high liability development. And then counting on future growth to sustain the bad bets of the past. The talk is a warning bell relating to long term solvency. Sprawl is expensive. How do we afford to pay for it. Sprawl is orderly but dumb.
Strong towns: Orderly but dumb.

Continue reading

2015 Lower Macungie Santa Run!

The 2015 Lower Macungie Fire Department Santa Run is scheduled for:
Saturday 12/12/15 and we will be departing around 3:15 p.m.
(Rain date is Sunday 12/13/15).

Link here for routes and the times LMFD expects to be in developments.

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Important FYI’s 

Please understand and be guided by the following:

1) LMFD provides the turn by turn routes and time frames so you can plan accordingly; as you may have to come to a street / intersection that we will be passing by. It is not realistic or feasible to go down every street in the Township. The routes are set up in order to keep them running efficiently and effectively and so that we can hit the maximum amount of area in a reasonable time frame.

2) The times listed are approximate; as we will also have to respond and handle any emergencies that may come in while we are out.

3) Candy will be thrown to the kids, so please make sure your kids are careful when picking it up.

4) If you would like to submit a picture that you took of the Santa Run, please email it to: info@firestation30.org. LMFD will be posting them on the website / Facebook page.

5) The Alburtis Fire Department will be doing their Santa Run on Sunday 12/6/15 and will be going through the Hills at Lockridge area of the Township.

6) The Trexlertown Fire Department will be doing their Santa Run on Saturday 12/19/15 and will be going through the Heritage Heights area of the Township.

Lower Macungie FYI’s:

Wanted: Smart Growth oriented Builders & Developers

Lower Macungie: Open for business.

I have a reputation among some as being “anti development”. Truth be told that’s not accurate. I ran on a platform of “a better way to grow” not “stop growth”.

I’ll continue to push back against sprawl. I’ll fight for farmland preservation. But I also understand that development pressure will continue. The LV Planning Commission forecasts another 10,000+ more residents in Lower Mac alone over the next decade. 145,000 more in the greater Lehigh Valley. People want to be here and with good reason.

Defining question: How do we avoid becoming what folks came here to get away from?

Moving forward, focus can’t and shouldn’t be on stopping growth. That’s both impossible & foolish. Rather we must work to attract and embrace better projects and more responsible builders and developers as partners. Smart Growth has far less impact (traffic, loss of open space, demand for infrastructure) than dumb growth. It has a much higher return for taxpayer dollars.

It’s documented we’ve had unfortunate situations that forced the township to deviate severely from good planning. Sad reality. We’ll pay for terrible decisions made by previous Boards. There are lessons to be learned.

Development in the Valley is unfortunately still dominated by cookie cutter. Smart growth projects do happen but are few a far between. Today, in Lower Mac we have good projects in the works but also a number of un-inspiring. How do we convince higher quality responsible builders and developers to want to do business here? How do we market the township to them?

Some home grown developers are slowly getting it. We want the best and most innovative right now. To find it we have to look beyond the Valley. I take road trips around SEPA looking at smart growth projects. Lots of inspiring examples. Great projects. I want them here.

Are you a developer who does responsible high quality smart growth? I want to meet you. Reach out to our Director of Planning & Community development. Check out some of our visioning documents below. Let’s get together. Let’s talk about Lower Macungie’s growth vision. Like I said. We’re a great place to live, work and play. By attracting better projects we can ensure we remain that way.

So, why should smart growth developers consider Lower Macungie?

A snapshot: The place to be in the Lehigh Valley.

  • The Lehigh Valley is the fastest growing and third most populous region in the state of Pennsylvania with a population of 821,623 residents
  • Population Growing: After 20 years of explosive growth – The total population of both Lower Macungie Township (30,700 +/-) and Upper Macungie Township (20,100 +/- ) is 50,800 +/-. As mentioned above the LVPC forecasts our growth to continue.
  • Desirable demographics: Lower Macungie Township has a mean household income of $78,359 and Upper Macungie Township’s mean is $85,600. By comparison the Pennsylvania Mean Household Income is $50,713.00.
  • Highly educated: Collectively the general population have High School Degree or higher at 92% +; Bachelor Degree or higher at 45% + and 67% are considered a white collar workforce.
  • Access: Our blessing & curse (because of logistics warehouse pressure) Easy access to I-78. Major arterial serving the greater Northeast.

Guiding documents/Visioning:
The township has a number of guiding documents that outline our aggressive smart growth strategy and outline how we must grow in a more managed and better fashion.

  • The Hamilton Blvd Corridor Study – This is where our appropriate density should be. The plan outlines how we can capture value from a corridor that should serve as the townships “bread-basket”.  We need to attract thoughtful mixed use development. As an example the township has demonstrated we will work with developers on a shared vision recently with Hamilton Crossings. Though not perfect, it does represent in alot of ways a public private partnership.
  • The township smart growth roadmap. This Smart Growth Plan recommends policies to assist in carrying out the Southwestern Lehigh County Comprehensive Plan and the new Lower Macungie Township Greenway Plan.
  • Township Parks & Recreation & Greenway Plans

Township/Developer working relationships. Customer service and smart growth friendly policies. A track record.

  • A track record of working with high quality developers on projects that reflect township smart growth principles and shared public/private vision. Ex. Hamilton Crossings (a step in the right direction), Stone Hill Meadows, (A cluster project with 70% open space).
  • A new expedited administrative review process. For low impact projects – get government out of the way.
  • Zoning and SALDO updates in support of smart growth. Again, get Gov’t out of the way of better projects.
  • 2016: The Township will reduce burdensome parking requirements for low impact businesses. We will also reduce commercial setbacks and review other regulations that needlessly stymie good projects.
  • 2016: East Texas Village Mixed Use zoning.
  • Working with our neighbors to update the Southwest regional comprehensive plan. This will be a robust process kicking off in January (at least the public component, stage setting work has been ongoing for about 6 months now)

Lower Macungie isn’t anti growth – We are Pro Smart Growth! – And we want to work with smart growth builders & developers.

2016 – Millage/Homestead by the numbers

*Relating to 2016 proposed budget – Under the proposed .50 millage and 50% homestead – By the numbers.

Of 11,610 households in Lower Macungie:
Around 90% of all households will see an overall reduction in their property tax bill over the last two years since homestead program began.
(10,052 households)

About 50% of households will see tax bill reductions two years in a row.
(5894 households)

Approximately 10% of households will have a 0 dollar LMT property tax bill.
(1095 households)

About 9% (only those over about 345,000 assessed value) will see a small net increase since homestead enacted.
*%’s rounded & with assumption that 100% enrolls in homestead program.
**Household statistics from Lehigh County assessment office.

Screen Shot 2015-11-23 at 3.00.34 PM

Less taxpayer subsidies for warehouses.
So while 90% of households will pay less twp. taxes in 2016 then they were in 2014, Industrial warehouses which cause massively expensive township liabilities will pay a more proportionate share.

2014 Warehouse assessed at 24,000,0000 paid – $8000
2016 Warehouse assessed at 24,000,000 will pay – $12,000

Still far under the valley average, but a more proportionate share in line with impacts. Better positioning the township to deal with issues such as traffic, stormwater management and potential (should we have to) new police force.

No, liquid fuels does not pay for local roads.

At least not entirely at least. Not even close.

Liquid fuel money is a state allocation of gas tax distributed to municipalities based on a funding formula. Lower Mac’s most recent act 655 liquid fuel allocation was 785,000 (based on 131 miles of road, population of 30,633)
*We carry an additional balance year to year in this fund because the state limits very specifically what this money can be used for.

So, what does it cost to maintain 131 miles of roads?
Rough breakdown:
Salaries 1 crew chief and 8 crew members and 2 PT:                                 700,000
Road resurfacing:                                                                                        450,000
Other general: (emergency repairs, fuel, equip repair and rental)                  300,000
Winter Maintenance:                                                                                    176,000
Traffic control devices: (includes repairs, electricity, new systems)               100,000
Roads & Bridges line item: (includes crack sealing, line striping, milling etc) 750,000
Capital: (includes intersections, capital bridge repair and equipment)           700,000

Total costs: 3.1M

That is 24,244 dollars a year to maintain the road network per mile of road.

*Some of these costs include new systems so it’s not a true representation of the cost to maintain existing. It accounts for growth.  Even with zero additional roads (not the case, we are assuming and building more each year) these costs will rise each year.

**Now also understand that some of these costs are also paid for by other programs state or local instead of general or capital revenue streams. For example we have some traffic impact fee money banked. What I want is the THE number of the year to year township liability for each mile of new road. It may be higher or lower than I am sketching here.

Add to this on the 5 year capital plan we have 3.3 Million dollars in road related items including the Sauerkraut extension. 

Over the next year I want to understand this better. One of my goals. And hopefully and project of the budget and finance committee. To truly understand the costs of new development and building new roads / assuming new road maintenance liabilities we have to understand these numbers. Above is very rudimentary and an exercise in progress.

UPDATE:
I asked my friend Rob Sentner who is a Supervisor in Upper Milford if they ever tried to quantify cost/mile/year. He answered with some excellent thoughts..

“Problem is we have all deferred repairs, tar and chipping is a band aid, nova chipping is a better alternative, the big thing that I think is missing is that some of the older non modern roads do not have the base to handle the weight capacities that they are being subjected to. (DUE TO INCREASED AND UNPLANNED FOR FREIGHT) Also a lot of the cross pipes are of corrugated steel and because of the liquid calcium and the ridiculous amount of salt that we now put on our roadways, the bottoms are failing. Try getting a DEP permit to replace a pipe……. so short answer Ron is I don’t know how you come up with an accurate number other than normal maintenance crack sealing, coating and plowing. I think the entire area is in for a eye opening cost to modernize our roadways to the kind of traffic and weight we are going to see. PennDOT seems to be having trouble keeping up to simple maintenance let alone trying to improve and enhance our roadways. add in the MS4 requirements coming our way you can forget about swale cleaning or any kind of discharging water to waters of the commonwealth.”

Vote tomorrow if…

…you took the time to prepare and did some research. If you feel confident your making a decision based on the individual merits of candidates. Then by all means please vote.

If you are planning on walking into a booth tomorrow and voting straight ticket (either direction) without having done the homework please don’t bother. Partisanship means very little in local elections up to and including the County. It shouldn’t be a team game.

If you are voting because of signs, because of a palm card you got in the mail or a robocall you rec’d I ask you to please take a little bit of time tonight or tomorrow morning and fact check what you read, saw or heard. Information is not always genuine. Both “teams” are guilty. Spin machines are in overdrive right now. Especially in Lehigh County. Good information is hard to come by.

To that end – I’ve tried to make an effort to try to write more about the County over the last year. I hope it’s been helpful to people. In Pennsylvania counties are truly the forgotten level of government. In local elections – Vote for people not parties. 

Here are some thoughts:

Lehigh County: Of all the local races tomorrow the one person I consider essentially important to be re-elected is Brad Osborne. In addition Amanda Holt has proven to be an extremely hard worker.

Controller: I’ve gotten to know Glenn Eckart over the last 2 years. He is a friend and I think he does a fine job in a row officer position that really should be a non-partisan watchdog. Now, Glenn is a party guy Republican. An old YR alumni. But he doesn’t bring partisanship into the Controllers office. He does a very good job.

East Penn School District: Number of good candidates. School district politics in East Penn as always is highly charged this year. . . For the most part I’ve learned not to touch it with a 10 foot pole.

All I’ll say about the race is I will NOT be voting for Charles Ballard. He’s been on the board a very long time. He supported the TIF with justification I didn’t agree with. He was also on the board when the deal was negotiated resulting in school district taxpayers paying the bill for a new road in Lower Macungie. It was and remains a terrible deal. School district money should not go to road construction. Time to give Mr. Ballard a voter term limit. He’s served a very long time. Time for someone else.

Allentown: As most did this year I followed Allentown relatively closely. Real shame what went down with the Mayor. It’s a dark cloud for certain. For the good of the city it’s time for mostly fresh faces. Suburban residents should care about Allentown. Healthy city cores are important for the entire Lehigh Valley.
City Council: Lou Hershman
& consider writing in Rich Fegely.
Controller: Steven Ramos
ASD: Consider CeCe Gerlach. She’s young, a very hard worker and always impresses. Don’t know her personally but she seems pretty independent minded. Had opportunity to hear her speak on a couple of occasions and was impressed. Also consider Scott Armstrong. Scott gets painted with a lot of labels. Most I don’t think he necessarily deserves.

Northampton County Council: Attended the Norco debate at Gracedale this year. And followed closely enough to think I have a relatively informed opinion. But caveat I don’t follow Northampton nearly as closely as Lehigh County.
District 3: John Cusick – Wonky. Smart. Sensible. My kind of candidate.
District 4: Scott Parsons – Workhorse. Sincere.

Other: Over in Lower Saucon an insane amount of outsider special interest money has been poured into a local race. It makes the outside money dumped into the 2013 Lower Mac race look like peanuts.  Disappointing. I don’t know enough about this race and the issues surrounding it to comment. I just hate seeing outside interests trying to influence a local race.

 

Lehigh County Budget notebook

Election time craziness.
First, as always during election time folks try to color conversations with hyper partisan lenses. Problem is over the last year most county discussions really were not partisan in nature. At least between the 9 County commissioners. 7 of which are Republicans who are not always on the same end of the ideological spectrum and 2 Democrats. I know this because I attend meetings. Not religiously. But enough to get a flavor. Ones I don’t attend I frequently watch online.

With this years budget? There was only 1 dissenter with an 8-1 vote.

Cumulative impacts.
Last years tax cut was derisively called a “happy meal”. This year a “pizza”. No matter what silly labeling each year the fact remains – after Don Cunningham’s (D) 16% tax increase of 2011 Lehigh County has since given either a rebate or tax cut 3 of the last 4 years. Just like small tax increases add up over time, so do small tax decreases.

Lehigh County tax cuts and rebates since 2011 increase.
2011 – Don Cunningham’s (D) 16% tax increase.
Since then over last 4 years…
2013 – Tax Cut of 3.0M. Rebate of 3.5M or a 44 dollar reduction
2014 – 0
2015 – Tax cut of 1.25M or 8 dollars for average homeowner
2016 – Tax cut of 2M or 14.21 for average homeowner

So yes, another “small” tax cut. But when you find “small” tax cuts year after year it adds up. And that’s just the County in a silo. Last year every Lower Macungie homeowner got a 19 dollar homestead break. For those at or under the median home value you will get your second in 2 years in 2016.

For some? It’s now a couple happy meals. For others? Maybe 2 tanks of gas. But for some the impacts are more serious. For ex. $40 helps feeds two seniors on fixed income for a weeks time. $40 helps a single mom feed a newborn for 2 weeks. It all adds up.

All told today? Just over 6 million in cuts over 5 years with zero measurable decreases in services. Sounds like a job well done to me.

“Rainy day/reserve fund”.
Commissioners have been criticized for “dipping into the rainy day fund to balance the budget”. Ok let’s examine that.

First, unlike Lower Macungie Township the County doesn’t have a fund balance policy. (Maybe they should consider one?) The next best measure is the Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA). They recommend 20%. This budget maintains that. 106M budget with a 20%+ reserve fund. Including and prior to this year Lehigh County has either met or exceeded recommended reserves. Prudent financial management.

Other Counties already borrowing money because of state budget impasse.
Lehigh County is not. They may very well eventually have to depending on how long Harrisburg gridlock lasts. But to date it’s not been considered. Others counties have had to. This again demonstrates the excellent fiscal shape Lehigh is in.

Takeaway.
I think the makeup of the current board of Commissioners is excellent. A very high functioning board under the leadership of Brad Osborne. The passed budget reduced taxes for the 3rd time in 4 years. The reserve fund is still at or above 20%. The counties bottom line finances are healthy.

In a climate where for better or worse “throw the bums out” is a rally cry.. In Lehigh County? I think stability is a good thing. Is there friction between the Executive and Commissioners at times? Yes. But isn’t that the way American democracy is supposed to work? As for the 9 Commissioners? I think the makeup of the board is excellent as it stands.

 

Infiltration and Inflow 101 – What residents need to know.

What: I&I stands for “Inflow and Infiltration”. In laymans terms this means an unwanted intrusion of “clear water” (stormwater or groundwater) into a sewer system. This can happen in a number of ways and often results in “sewage system overflows” (overflows).

Inflow and Infiltration sources

Inflow and Infiltration sources – Points where clearwater intrudes into sewer systems.

Why is this a problem: Sanitary sewer systems are designed to carry wastewater from toilets, dishwashers, sinks, or showers in homes or businesses to treatment locations.

Unwanted I&I that comes with an aging system adds unwanted clear water to sewers increasing the volume load.  This creates a strain. Clear water belongs in storm-water sewers or on the surface of the ground, not in the sanitary lines. An excess of I&I (additional clearwater volume) can lead to overflows during major storm events.

Overflows are a serious problem since it means untreated sewage is discharged from the system into the environment prior to reaching treatment facilities. This is why the EPA is very concerned. Note: This isn’t a Lower Mac or even Lehigh Valley specific issue. But a problem with aging sewer systems everywhere.

Screen Shot 2015-10-27 at 1.01.42 PM

Why does Lower Mac have to be concerned right now? (and really almost every single valley municipality) Because of concerns about outflows in 2009, the EPA issued an “Administrative Order” to all the municipalities served by the regional sewer system in our area. The Lehigh County Authority provides that system to residents in Lower Mac.

Here is a very good overview from Pat Lester formally of the Morning Call:
Lehigh Towns could face EPA fines over missed deadlines for sewer work

The order requires municipalities to make significant and costly improvements to sewers to eliminate overflows.  EPA has demanded outflows be eliminated by 2014. That has not happened. As of right now LCA and certain LCA municipalities have requested an extension.

How big is the issue?
Lower Macungie Township has 121.86 plus miles of gravity fed sanitary sewers. The total mandated costs to eliminate I&I issues (the major cause of outflow) will be in total astronomical.

We have been paying for awhile now. And we will continue for the foreseeable future. For at least the next 5 years the township has budgeted 250,000 dollars a year to address the issue with plans to ramp that amount up even higher.

To date we have been able to pay for scheduled work without substantial sewer rate increases. This year Commissioners rejected a proposal to increase rates by 10%. To be frank the increase really could have been justified. And further to be 100% honest it’s going to be continuously tougher to avoid moving forward. There were some one time circumstances this year that allowed us to avoid rate increase this year.

Relationship to development:
A question needs to be asked. As clearwater is removed from sewer systems will capacity be increased? If so will this lead to sprawling outward pressure? Next, if so does LCA have it’s sites set on Berks County?

How about further up the South Mountain in Lower Mac? It’s my understanding that at times municipalities have paid for required I&I work with new connection fees. At some point we need a sustainable system. Sewer expansion is the number one driver of costly sprawl.

Basically, should a strategy involve – 1. Remediating outflows by addressing capacity issues. 2.  Paying for those repairs in part with new hookups. 3. With new hookups we create more capacity issues. And 4. Repeat… One can easily see the potential problem here.

I&I is just one part of the strategy.
Granted a huge part. And one mandated that we (Lower Mac) fix on our 120+ mile system. But LCA is also looking at other options to also address treatment issues. One possibility is spray irrigation. Another is expansion of Klines Island. These would be costs LCA passes onto township ratepayers. *UPDATE 10/28 I’ve found out that spray irrigation has been ruled out and that expansion of Klines island is most likely. Also to clarify Klines island or potential spray irrigation relates to treatment issues not conveyance. I&I is a conveyance issue.

Bottom line is this federally mandated remediation is going to be astronomically expensive. Much of the scope of the problem and cost to fix remains unclear. While Lower Macungie has been doing a very good job staying ahead of the issue, alot of what’s to come also depends on what  how our neighbors respond and how LCA handles treatment issues.

Another item looming with potentially large impacts is Pennsylvania Ms4 program. It is another important area that we as a community need to become more familiar with. Staff has already been doing an excellent job in preparing. I think now the local legislators myself included need to do a better job understanding. This will be the subject of another blogpost within the next 2 weeks.